Group displacement, worked end to end: one real ask, every step

Our displacement analysis guide covers the method — the four numbers, the formula, the break-even rate. This is the companion piece: one realistic group ask taken all the way through, with every complication the clean textbook version skips — commission, comp rooms, concessions, banquet profit, and the wash adjustment that quietly flips the verdict. Follow along with your own numbers.

The ask

A 120-room upscale hotel. Sales brings a corporate group: 60 rooms per night, Tuesday–Thursday, at $139, booked through an agency at 10% commission, with a 1-per-40 comp room policy, two suite upgrades plus amenities (~$600 of concessions across the stay), and a two-day banquet lunch program worth $9,000 gross. Answer needed by Friday.

Step 1: the forecast without the group

Everything rests on what you would honestly sell anyway — from pickup history and current pace, not from hope:

Night	Transient demand (rooms)	Transient ADR
Tuesday	105	$189
Wednesday	112	$195
Thursday	82	$175

Step 2: displaced rooms, night by night

With the 60-room block, only 60 rooms remain for transient. Displaced = min(demand, 120) − min(demand, 60). Value each displaced room at its ADR minus variable cost ($22/room here — housekeeping, amenities, breakfast):

Night	Displaced rooms	Contribution each	Displaced value
Tuesday	105 − 60 = 45	$189 − $22 = $167	$7,515
Wednesday	112 − 60 = 52	$195 − $22 = $173	$8,996
Thursday	82 − 60 = 22	$175 − $22 = $153	$3,366
Total	119 room-nights		$19,877

Note the shape: Wednesday does the damage. Thursday barely displaces. This per-night view is what makes the counter-offer possible later.

Step 3: what the group actually nets

Work in contribution, same as the transient side:

• Net rate after 10% commission: $139 × 0.90 = $125.10; minus $22 variable cost = $103.10 per occupied room
• Rooms: 180 room-nights × $103.10 = $18,558
• Comp rooms (1-per-40 → 1/night): −3 × $103.10 ≈ −$309
• Concessions (upgrades, amenities): −$600
• Banquet: $9,000 gross at ~30% profit = +$2,700 (never count catering gross — it carries real costs)

Group contribution at face value ≈ $20,349 vs $19,877 displaced — ahead by about $470. On the booking report this looks like a yes.

Step 4: the wash adjustment (where it flips)

Groups rarely fill their block. Your wash tracking says this account type materializes about 85% — but you hold all 60 rooms until cutoff, so the displacement stays. You displace on the block and get paid on the pickup:

• Picked-up rooms: 153 room-nights × $103.10 = $15,774; minus comps and concessions ≈ $14,865
• Banquet holds at $2,700 (guaranteed by the F&B minimum — if it isn't guaranteed, wash this too)
• Group contribution at expected pickup ≈ $17,565 vs $19,877 displaced = −$2,312. Decline as structured.

Step 5: the counter-offer that flips it back

Displacement analysis isn't a yes/no machine — it prices the deal. Three levers, from the per-night table: rate — at $159 (net $143.10, contribution $121.10), the expected-pickup math lands about $440 positive: that's your floor, quote $159–$169; pattern — shifting to Wednesday–Friday halves Wednesday displacement's weight because Friday barely displaces (re-run the table for any shift); and terms — 90% attrition, a guaranteed F&B minimum, and a reviewable block (release unsold rooms at 30 days) all shrink the wash gap that killed the $139 version. The counter that went back: $159, 90% attrition, F&B minimum guaranteed — or $145 on a Sunday–Tuesday pattern. Both work on the math; sales picks the one the client can sell.

The three questions to always ask

1. Which nights actually displace? Totals hide it; the per-night table is the analysis.
2. What does the group bring beyond rooms — and is it guaranteed? Banquet profit at contribution, meeting rental, and whether any of it survives a partial pickup.
3. What happens if we say no? If the forecast is honest, "no" means selling those rooms at transient rates — which is exactly what the displaced-value column measures. If you don't believe that column, fix the forecast before the group decision.

Run your own ask

The free displacement calculator handles the one-night version in your browser. The Group Displacement Calculator ($39) is this entire walkthrough as a working spreadsheet — multi-night model with per-night forecasts, commission and variable-cost fields, the wash adjustment, a quote builder, and the wash-tracking sheet that gives you a real materialization rate instead of a guess. The concept and the break-even formula live in the displacement analysis guide.